Return vs. risk: TrendWell, SPY and well-known funds
Each marker shows one fund over the same months, with dividends included. The orange line is the frontier: no other fund on the chart has more return with less risk. The marker shape shows how a retail investor can buy the fund.
TrendWell (TWD)
SPY (S&P 500)
Frontier at TWD's risk
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TrendWell: a newsletter, you buy the 5 ETFs
SPY
ETF or stock: buy any amount at a broker
Mutual fund: day-end price, minimum up to $3,000
Frontier
Not on the chart: private hedge funds such as Citadel, Millennium and Bridgewater Pure Alpha. They accept only accredited investors, usually with high minimums, and do not publish monthly returns. QAI, HFND, ALLW and the AQR funds use hedge-fund strategies in a form that any investor can buy.
Data: Yahoo Finance adjusted closes, so all results are total return (dividends and fund payouts included).
Chart window: the full TrendWell live record. Each month uses the close on the 1st, or the last trading day before it.
Return is the compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Volatility is the standard deviation of monthly returns (n − 1) × √12.
Since inception: from the first trading day to the end of the chart window. Volatility uses the full months in that period. The popup notes explain the exceptions.
TrendWell: equal weight of each month's 5 picks.
How to buy: ETFs and stocks trade all day at any broker, in any amount. Mutual funds trade at the day-end price, with minimums from $0 (Contrafund) to $3,000 (PRIMECAP). The AQR funds are shown as Class N, the share class for individual investors.
Frontier: a fund is on the frontier when no other fund on the chart has both a higher return and a lower volatility.
Same result: VOO, IVV and VFIAX match SPY. VTSAX matches VTI.
This is a short sample. Past results do not predict future results.